Executive Summary

First quarter of production: CTGO sold 27,677 oz of gold at a blended realized price of $2,253/oz and reported Q3 net loss of $9.7M (-$0.81/share), heavily impacted by non-cash derivative MTM losses; cash ended at $36.2M .
Manh Choh ramped as planned with by-product cash costs of $1,181/oz and $19.5M cash distribution from the Peak Gold JV; another $12.0M distribution was received in October, pointing to improving liquidity .
2024 production tracking near the high end (~38,500 oz, CTGO share); initial 2025 framework later reaffirmed at ~60,000 oz (CTGO share) with 2025 AISC guided to ~$1,625/oz AuEq and LOM AISC ~$1,400/oz AuEq due to haul restrictions, moisture, and higher processing costs (AISC up from TRS $1,116) .
Estimate comparisons: S&P Global Wall Street consensus for Q3 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to data access limitations; CTGO’s equity-accounted JV model and non-cash hedge MTM also limit conventional “revenue/EPS beat/miss” interpretation (consensus unavailable).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Production and margins: Sold 27,677 oz gold at a blended $2,253/oz with by‑product cash costs of $1,181/oz, implying ~$1,072/oz blended cash profit on ounces sold .
Cash generation and treasury: Received $19.5M JV cash distribution in Q3 and $12.0M more on Oct 24; cash balance rose to $36.2M at 9/30/24 from $24.1M at 6/30/24 .
CEO tone on execution: “It has been a milestone quarter for Contango with the commencement of gold production at Manh Choh… [we] are in a strong financial position earning positive cashflow from ongoing operations at Manh Choh” .

What Went Wrong

Hedge/derivative headwinds: Q3 net loss (-$9.7M) included $22.9M non‑cash unrealized MTM loss and $28.8M total derivative loss from hedges as spot gold rose above hedge prices .
2025 cost outlook higher: AISC raised to ~$1,625/oz AuEq (2025) and ~$1,400/oz AuEq (LOM) versus prior TRS $1,116/oz on haul weight limits, high ore moisture reducing haul volumes ~20%, and higher processing costs .
Campaign #3 mix: Management flagged the third 2024 campaign as smaller and lower grade given stockpile management needs, tempering near‑term per‑ounce margins into year‑end .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
Net Loss ($M)	-$20.5	-$18.5	-$9.7
Diluted EPS ($)	-$2.14	-$1.90	-$0.81
Derivative MTM Loss – Unrealized ($M)	$15.6	$12.6	$22.9
Total Derivative Loss ($M)	N/A	N/A	$28.8
Cash and Equivalents ($M, period-end)	$15.5 (12/31/23 ref)	$24.1 (6/30/24)	$36.2 (9/30/24)
Cash Distribution from Peak Gold JV ($M)	$0	$0	$19.5

KPIs (Manh Choh – CTGO’s 30% share, Q3 2024):

Gold ounces sold: 27,677 oz
Silver ounces sold: 8,343 oz
Total gold sales: $62,342,487; Silver sales: $245,559
Blended realized gold price: $2,253/oz; Spot ounces 12,850; Hedged ounces 14,825
By‑product cash costs: $1,181/oz; Remaining hedge balance: 109,775 oz (at Q3 end)

KPI (Q3 2024 unless noted)	Value
Gold ounces sold	27,677 oz
Silver ounces sold	8,343 oz
Total gold sales	$62.34M
Total silver sales	$0.25M
Blended realized gold price	$2,253/oz
Spot vs Hedged mix	12,850 oz spot; 14,825 oz hedged
Cash costs (by‑product)	$1,181/oz
Remaining hedge balance	109,775 oz

Context on revenue presentation: CTGO does not consolidate JV sales; profitability flows through “income from equity investment,” while hedge deliveries are structured to service credit‑linked hedges (management explanation) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Manh Choh production (CTGO share)	FY 2024	30,000–40,000 oz	~38,500 oz (near upper end)	Narrowed to upper end
Manh Choh production (CTGO share)	FY 2025	~67,500 oz (company materials)	~60,000 oz	Lowered
AISC (LOM)	LOM	$1,116/oz (TRS)	~$1,400/oz AuEq	Raised
AISC (annual)	FY 2025	N/A	~$1,625/oz AuEq	New
Cash distributions from Peak Gold JV	FY 2025	N/A	~$50M at $2,500/oz gold	New

Drivers of AISC increase: weight restrictions on Chena Flood Plain Bridge and higher ore moisture reducing hauled ore ~20% vs TRS plan, plus higher processing costs .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2024, Q2 2024)	Current Period (Q3 2024)	Trend
Production ramp	Q1: first production guided early Q3; mine/mill mods on plan . Q2: first gold poured July 8; on schedule/on budget .	Sold ~27.7k oz; blended $2,250/oz; by‑product cash costs $1,181/oz .	Executing to plan; quarterly cadence replacing “campaign” detail .
Hedging program	Q1/Q2: 124,600 oz hedged at $2,025/oz through 2026 per Facility; ~65% of early production hedged .	2025 hedged ~60k oz; deliver ~60% of campaign ounces into hedges, remainder sold spot .	Continues; mitigates downside, caps upside.
Debt and capital allocation	Q1/Q2: facility draws; focus on funded ramp .	“First order of business is to pay down the debt”; dividends/buybacks only in out years .	De‑leveraging prioritized.
Johnson Tract (JT) permitting/PEA	Q2: start 3,000 m infill/hydrology program; MOU with OPMP; PEA mandate to SRK .	2024 drill highlights (e.g., 223.5 m @ 11.5 g/t AuEq); 404 road permit; PEA targeted around year‑end/early 2025 .	Advancing; positive drill confirmation.
2025 outlook	Q2 materials referenced ~67.5k oz/yr (CTGO share) and AISC $1,116 (TRS) .	Reaffirmed ~60k oz; AISC raised to ~$1,625 (2025) and ~$1,400 (LOM) with haul/process headwinds .	Cost headwind vs earlier expectations.
Macro/gold price	Limited prior commentary.	Mgmt flagged short‑term gold pressure vs crypto, but constructive fundamentals; hedges create non‑cash MTM losses when spot > hedge price .	Cautiously constructive; watch margins.

Management Commentary

“It has been a milestone quarter for Contango with the commencement of gold production at Manh Choh… [we] anticipate producing near the upper end of our 2024 guidance with gold production of approximately 38,500 ounces… [and are] in a strong financial position earning positive cashflow” .
“In this quarter, Q3, we produced… just shy of 28,000 ounces of gold… sold that for a little over $62 million… we realized a price of $2,250… costs were $1,181… roughly $1,000 margin… we did receive a distribution… of $19.5 million” .
“First order of business is really to pay down the debt. And then advancing our projects [Lucky Shot, Johnson Tract]” .
On 2025: “Believing [guidance]… somewhere in the neighborhood of 60,000 ounces of production in the year 2025” .
On AISC update and haul constraints: 2025 AISC ~$1,625/oz AuEq, LOM ~$1,400/oz AuEq, driven by Chena bridge weight limits, higher ore moisture (~20% less hauled than TRS), and higher processing costs .

Q&A Highlights

Accounting/financials: Management clarified equity accounting (30% JV) means profitability appears in “equity income,” not top‑line revenue; hedge deliveries are structured to meet facility hedges .
Hedging cadence: ~60% of each campaign delivered into hedges; 2025 hedged ~60k oz; remaining 2026 ~40k oz hedged as schedule varies by quarter .
Campaign mix: Campaign #3 is smaller/lower grade to clean up stockpiles and manage pad space, modestly tempering near‑term per‑ounce margins .
Capital returns: Dividends/buybacks are a longer‑term consideration after debt paydown; management favors tight share count and future optionality .
Johnson Tract next steps: Infill results soon; PEA on DSO model targeting year‑end/early 2025; plan contemplates barging ore to an existing mill with specific flotation circuits .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue for Q3 2024 was unavailable due to data access limitations. CTGO’s equity‑accounted JV structure and non‑cash hedge MTM also make top‑line “revenue” and GAAP EPS less comparable to traditional producers (consensus unavailable).
Operational KPIs (ounces sold, realized price, cash costs) and JV cash distributions are the most decision‑useful drivers for near‑term estimate revisions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Production ramp on track: Q3 established quarterly cadence with robust blended pricing and by‑product cash costs, validating the DSO/toll‑milling model at Manh Choh .
Cash flow visibility: $31.5M distributions through Oct and higher‑end 2024 output (~38.5k oz) support debt paydown into 2025 .
2025 cost reset: AISC lifted to ~$1,625/oz (2025) and ~$1,400/oz (LOM) on haul/process constraints; monitor execution on logistics mitigations and processing costs .
Hedge overlay: 2025 largely hedged at ~$2,025/oz (program established 2023); protects downside but creates non‑cash MTM volatility when spot > hedge .
Near‑term catalysts: Johnson Tract infill results (released Nov 21) and PEA timing; 2025 JV budget formalization and any updates on haul constraints or processing costs .
Medium‑term growth: Progress at Lucky Shot (fully permitted) and Johnson Tract underpins the “hybrid royalty” DSO strategy and potential multi‑asset cash flow by late decade .

Appendix: Additional Q3‑Relevant Releases

Nov 7: $12.0M distribution (Campaign #2); 2024 total production expected ~38.5k oz (CTGO share) .
Nov 21: Johnson Tract 2024 drill results; highlights include 223.5 m @ 11.5 g/t AuEq and 55.5 m @ 30.3 g/t AuEq; 404 road permit received .
Nov 29: Reaffirmed 2025 production ~60k oz (CTGO share), AISC updated; projected 2025 JV distributions ~$50M at $2,500 gold; LOM 4–5 years at current haul rates .

Notes on non‑GAAP: Company materials include non‑GAAP measures (AISC, free cash flow) with reconciliation limitations due to JV IFRS data prepared by operator; see non‑GAAP disclaimer in corporate presentation furnished with Q3 8‑K .

Contango ORE, Inc. (CTGO)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary